Organizations operate through making decisions. The manager controls, plans, leads, staffs and organizes her team through execution of judgments. The quality and effectiveness of the decisions determine the success of the manager. As managers, I have been faced with a situation that needed to solve a problem in the past. Addressing the issue often requires the knowledge of probability. The decisions making process starts when the manager identifies the problem
The manager needs to look at various alternatives for solving a problem. After the analysis of multiple options, as manager, I am supposed to select the best one that has the highest probability of having fewer risks and higher returns. The best alternative selected has the most advantages with fewer disadvantages. The process of selection could be direct for instance the alternative with the most benefits and with the fewest drawbacks. The optimal solution is the combinations of various options (Xie & Goh, 2014). In other scenarios, the best choice is not very obvious. The manager’s needs to make decisions on the alternative that is the most effective and feasible combined with the one that has the lowest cost to the form. Probability estimates whereby the analysis of every alternative chance of the success takes place come to plan in this state of the decision-making process.
In most cases, the manager selects the alternative that has the highest probability of succeeding. As a manager, I am paid to make decisions and to attain good results from the choices. The decisions made needs to have positive outcomes. For a successful outcome, every person in the organization needs to know their role.
Xie, M., and T. N. Goh. "The use of probability limits for process control based on geometric distribution." International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management 14.1 (2014): 64-73.
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