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[4 April 2019]

International Relations

Commercial liberals are of the view that economic interdependence between states makes wars less likely. This means that trade is more efficient than the use of force for achieving state objective. When Commercial Liberalism was tested, there existed a lack of evidence for reducing international conflicts. One study maintains that there is a powerful link between international conflict and interdependence, while other ignores this proposition. On the other hand, Neorealist view other variables such as domestic regime future trade expectation. For them, survival is vital to the statecraft on the basis of self-help. Joseph S. Nye and Robert Keohane are of the view that it is not economic interdependence that characterizes state rather the economic relations that are costly to break on a mutual basis ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"wnTSbKS0","properties":{"formattedCitation":"({\\i{}Journal of Military and Strategic Studies})","plainCitation":"(Journal of Military and Strategic Studies)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":277,"uris":["http://zotero.org/users/local/orkqtrjP/items/UUNWXCM5"],"uri":["http://zotero.org/users/local/orkqtrjP/items/UUNWXCM5"],"itemData":{"id":277,"type":"webpage","title":"Journal of Military and Strategic Studies","URL":"https://jmss.org/index","accessed":{"date-parts":[["2019",4,4]]}}}],"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"} (Journal of Military and Strategic Studies). When states suffer substantial long-term costs, they become vulnerable and disrupt their normal economic ties. As far as the US is concerned and with the collapse of former USSR, the US assumes itself as the sole guarantee of the global security and show its deterrence. Meanwhile, the US wants to maintain its hegemony and that in fact has raised concerns about decision-making unilaterally. In this regard, there are growing concerns regarding its promotion of self-interest by violating international law.

Trade interdependence has significantly decreased the onset of conflicts between the two states. This can be examined by comparing the pre and post-trade interdepended conflicts around the world. Moreover, China, for example, had longer hostilities prior to the years of economic reforms. Trade and economic interdependence makes war less likely and reduces its intensity. This would be a possible reason that both the US and China may not confront each other directly as both have economic interdependence. But there exist potentials of trade-war between the two countries ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"0LWcEJaO","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(Zeng)","plainCitation":"(Zeng)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":279,"uris":["http://zotero.org/users/local/orkqtrjP/items/EMLJHN2W"],"uri":["http://zotero.org/users/local/orkqtrjP/items/EMLJHN2W"],"itemData":{"id":279,"type":"book","title":"Trade Threats, Trade Wars: Bargaining, Retaliation, and American Coercive Diplomacy","publisher":"University of Michigan Press","source":"JSTOR","archive":"JSTOR","abstract":"This study of American trade policy addresses two puzzles associated with the use of aggressive bargaining tactics to open foreign markets. First, as the country with greater power and resources, why has the United States achieved more success in extracting concessions from some of its trading partners than others? Second, why is it that trade disputes between democratic and authoritarian states do not more frequently spark retaliatory actions than those between democratic pairs? Ka Zeng finds answers to both of these questions in the domestic repercussions of the structure of trade between the United States and its trading partners, whether the United States has a <i>competitive</i> trade relationship with its trading partner, or whether trade is <i>complementary</i> . This book offers practical policy prescriptions that promise to be of interest to trade policymakers and students of international trade policy. Ka Zeng is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Arkansas, Fayetteville.","URL":"https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.3998/mpub.17690","ISBN":"978-0-472-11358-3","note":"DOI: 10.3998/mpub.17690","shortTitle":"Trade Threats, Trade Wars","author":[{"family":"Zeng","given":"Ka"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2004"]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2019",4,4]]}}}],"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"} (Zeng).

The trade war has been justified differently with multiple fronts. In contemporary global politics, the countries are trying to target their economies rather than militaries ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"lGjR6V7p","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(Cary Huang)","plainCitation":"(Cary Huang)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":280,"uris":["http://zotero.org/users/local/orkqtrjP/items/BNVEXVNY"],"uri":["http://zotero.org/users/local/orkqtrjP/items/BNVEXVNY"],"itemData":{"id":280,"type":"webpage","title":"History shows trade wars cause world wars. Will this time be different?","container-title":"South China Morning Post","abstract":"The risk of armed conflict has to be acknowledged, with the trade war now affecting a swathe of US allies, and with the two main actors in the dispute, China and the US, showing every intention of a fight to the end in a tit-for-tat tussle.","URL":"https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2155565/trade-wars-cause-world-wars-history-shows-will","language":"en","author":[{"literal":"Cary Huang"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2018",7,17]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2019",4,4]]}}}],"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"} (Cary Huang). In this regard, the Trump administration claims that China has been playing the market practices in an unfair way such as stealing the US intellectual property. In 2017, the US launched an investigation against the trade policies of Chinese. On 6th July 2018, the US imposed the first wave of tariffs on Chinese goods worth $34 billion. This was retaliated immediately from China. This will cast a dark shadow over the global economic order. The administration has continuously been threatening additional tariffs of $267 billion by 2020. This will lead to an unpredicted scenario

There is no such scenario that may make trade-wars less likely while the major powers seem not interested in depressing the global prices and protectionism. This will result in a decrease in industrial production and an increase in protectionism ADDIN ZOTERO_ITEM CSL_CITATION {"citationID":"Xk0ycJ7t","properties":{"formattedCitation":"(Lowrey)","plainCitation":"(Lowrey)","noteIndex":0},"citationItems":[{"id":282,"uris":["http://zotero.org/users/local/orkqtrjP/items/KQEE4FUW"],"uri":["http://zotero.org/users/local/orkqtrjP/items/KQEE4FUW"],"itemData":{"id":282,"type":"webpage","title":"The Costs of Trump’s Trade War","container-title":"The Atlantic","abstract":"Higher prices, slowing growth, mounting layoffs—and the indirect costs may be even greater.","URL":"https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/07/the-costs-of-trumps-trade-war/565208/","language":"en-US","author":[{"family":"Lowrey","given":"Annie"}],"issued":{"date-parts":[["2018",7,16]]},"accessed":{"date-parts":[["2019",4,4]]}}}],"schema":"https://github.com/citation-style-language/schema/raw/master/csl-citation.json"} (Lowrey).This will force the investors to look for alternative markets with fewer competitors and many opportunities. Negotiation, in fact, is the only way out as the trade-war will only produce looser rather than winners. The best-case scenario is that the major countries should reach an agreement and this will ends as there is always a deal to be done. Currently, both the US and China are testing each other and eventually, they will realize that they require cooperation. But negotiation requires support from US corporations. Earlier, there was support, but the landscapes have changed dramatically. Nowadays, they view Chinese corporations as competitors. This will surely fuel a vicious cycle as restrictions will make China promote its domestic technology. As a result, Chinese corporations will not be able to purchase high-tech commodities from the US and will be encouraged to develop their own.

Bibliography

ADDIN ZOTERO_BIBL {"uncited":[],"omitted":[],"custom":[]} CSL_BIBLIOGRAPHY Cary Huang. “History Shows Trade Wars Cause World Wars. Will This Time Be Different?” South China Morning Post, 17 July 2018, https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2155565/trade-wars-cause-world-wars-history-shows-will.

Journal of Military and Strategic Studies. https://jmss.org/index. Accessed 4 Apr. 2019.

Lowrey, Annie. “The Costs of Trump’s Trade War.” The Atlantic, 16 July 2018, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/07/the-costs-of-trumps-trade-war/565208/.

Zeng, Ka. Trade Threats, Trade Wars: Bargaining, Retaliation, and American Coercive Diplomacy. University of Michigan Press, 2004. JSTOR, JSTOR, doi:10.3998/mpub.17690.